The declaration by communist China that it supports the Argentine claim to sovereignty of the Falkland Islands is not just a political statement. It is backed up by the provision of some serious financial aid for the South American country, initially to the tune of more than US$23 billion. This is the “bait on the hook” and the Argentine trout has jumped at the chance to sell its soul. It is now beholden to China and the communist regime will undoubtedly extract its pound of flesh from the arrangement, as it has done with so many of the world’s lesser developed nations.
As Portia so wisely said, we must not let “a drop of blood” fall as a direct result of this “gratuitous” transaction.
The timing of this initiative could not be better from a Chinese point of view. Argentina still smarts from its defeat in 1982 – a matter that is clearly understood by the Chinese. The obvious dangers of being in the pocket of China will probably have been studiously ignored by the Argentine government who, with a generous helping of the Latin temperament, may now have decided to seize upon the opportunity to progress its own claim to the Islands.
Looking deeper into this issue, it is probably unlikely that the Chinese themselves would be thinking of their own military forces invading the Islands but, quite clearly, they will have a well-researched game plan behind their proclamation. Such a Plan might read as follows:
Take financial control of Argentinian foreign policy through magnanimous aid.
Rebuild Argentina’s Armed Forces with more aid, providing the latter with robust naval, air and ground forces.
In exchange for b. above, receive approval for the generation of a Chinese port and airfield facility on the mainland that can/will be used for strategic military purposes.
Persuade the Argentinian government to invade the Falkland Islands once more: this time with under-the-table Chinese military support.
Establish a major Chinese military installation on the Islands and take control of the lucrative fishing, mineral and fossil fuel resources.
If for any reason Argentina does not follow this plan to the letter and is dissuaded from invading the Islands, the Chinese may already have achieved their main goal with a major Strategic Maritime Military presence in the South Atlantic. Arguably, this is not in the interest of the free Western world.
So what can the Western world to do about it?
40 years ago, the British government had its head in the sand and failed to take any notice of the intelligence being fed to it concerning a possible Argentine invasion. Now, we don’t just have intelligence, we have a very clear statement of intent from the Chinese concerning their gaining a foothold in the South Atlantic. To ignore this would provide further evidence of insanity.
But it is not just the Brits who should be alarmed by this projected new expansion of Chinese territorial aggrandizement. It is no longer the case of disagreement and military confrontation between just Britain and Argentina. Instead, it marks a significant threat to the West’s ability to police the Global Commons and to deter military conflict – rather than lying back and getting raped.
Fortunately, the nuclear umbrella continues to dissuade Global Powers from taking steps towards mutual self-destruction. But this umbrella could now be seen as a two-edged sword. China appears to have cottoned on to this fact (as indeed has Putin and Russia). The Communist giant in the East continues to ignore international conventions concerning the freedom of the high seas and openly seeks world domination. Concerned nations of the Indo Pacific region and western nations whose prosperity depends upon trade with that region have taken steps to combine forces in order to ensure the continuation of peaceful trade and coexistence. But there are no such alliances in the South Atlantic to deter the expansion of Chinese maritime interest/control within that Southern Ocean. That is a grave weakness that should be addressed immediately by Western Governments and Administrations.
Is a coordinated effort possible? The catastrophic policies and lack of robust leadership by the Leader of the Western World during his first year in office would appear to suggest that our Western nations are in disarray with diminished trust between them. This leads to the question, are our politicians going to continue to run around major strategic issues such as this one like partisan headless chickens? Or will statesmanship and common-sense return to the Lands of the Free?
The jingoistic bluster and hyperbole emanating from some Western leaders and their supporting bureaucrats and “diplomats” over Ukraine needs to cease. Repeated references to the possibility of a 3rd world war are ill considered and entirely counterproductive. We are in a poker game here and should not show our cards so readily. Constant whining in public that “we do not know Putin’s next move” weakens our hand – which is indeed a strong one if only it is played more discreetly and with due reference to historical precedent.
As far as the Falkland Islands and the South Atlantic region is concerned, Britain’s allies can no longer say, as they did in 1982, “not my problem!” Containing Chinese influence and aggrandizement must be considered the number one priority in our quest for the continued freedom of the seas and our continued prosperity.
Given the current pathetic leadership of the West, I can see no change in their less than robust approach to Chinese imperialism. Should Donald Trump return to the Whitehouse however, the Chinese plan for world domination will be stopped in its tracks. I hope it is not too late to do so.
Given the current pathetic leadership of the West, I can see no change in their less than robust approach to Chinese imperialism.
Should Donald Trump return to the Whitehouse however, the Chinese plan for world domination will be stopped in its tracks. I hope it is not too late to do so.