How strong is the new Entente Cordiale between Russia and China? What strategic relevance does it have for NATO and the West?
The recent meeting between Putin and Xi at the Olympics was hailed by some in the media as a new Joint Support Agreement between the 2 Superpowers. In Beijing, friendly smiles indicated a liaison that, if genuine, posed a serious geopolitical threat to our Western democracies. The key word here is “genuine”.
I would suggest that the public face of Xi was not at all genuine and hid a short/medium term intention to weaken Russia and to make it economically dependent upon and beholden to China. That is where the most serious geopolitical threat lies.
The commercial aspects of this new partnership were immediately apparent, with China agreeing to buy substantial amounts of fossil fuels from Russia. The more the Russian economy founders, the more dependent upon China Russia will become, and we can be sure that Xi will take maximum advantage of extending Chinese influence over continental Europe. Whatever solution is arrived at over the Ukraine crisis, it could be a win-win situation for China in its quest for world domination.
But will the stratagem succeed in the long term? NATO has had a very serious wake-up call and must respond with a move away from appeasement (Germany) and a genuine commitment by member European nations to take this “warning shot” seriously. The days of total reliance upon the conventional military might of the United States must be over and must be demonstrated with the physical defensive military rearmament of all NATO nations – doing their fair share for once. President Reagan’s words of “peace through strength” are even more apposite today than when we were enjoying his intuitive leadership.
Fortunately, so far, the Russian Goliath is being/has been thwarted by the strong leadership and determination of the Ukrainian people. The full implications of Russia’s warmongering have yet to be realized but it would appear that the Chinese leadership is very concerned by the determination being shown against what clearly are great odds, militarily speaking. What would be the knock-on effect of equally strong resistance from nations in the Indo Pacific region to China’s plans for territorial aggrandizement and dominance?
The upside for Xi is the lack of strong leadership by the White House. One predictable result of the uneasy partnership between Russia and China is that the unwillingness of the Biden Administration to return the USA to full energy independence is providing substance and weight to that partnership. As long as much of Europe depends upon Russian supplies for its energy, the partnership is likely to grow stronger and more manipulative.
Amazingly, there is a continued (lunatic) concentration by the Administration on the Green New Deal agenda; particularly, the exaggerated short-term effect of Global Warming and the inane crusade against the use of Fossil Fuels. These ideological campaigns pay scant regard to the effect they are having on Allied stability and security.
Further, most of the relatively poor nations of the world will be relying upon fossil fuels for decades after Biden buys himself one of the much vaunted electrically powered vehicles. A question that the Administration should be asking itself is, “where will the poorer nations get their fossil fuels when, in the distant future, the United States has finally found a clean replacement?” Small nations cannot afford nuclear power – and I would suggest that it is the only true alternative that will be available for decades to come.
The realistic long-term effect of the war on fossil fuels is to push many nations towards an unhealthy reliance upon China and Russia for their energy supplies. This does not bode well for Western security and prosperity.
A major U-turn away from the fanciful Green New Deal policies is now imperative.
Sharkey The West must make it clear that we are collectively not against the people of Russia but only against the present leadership and corrupt oligarchs. When the war with Ukraine is resolved Russia will be in a dire economic situation and potentially beholden to China. Our reaction should be a wholescale financial package to support both Ukraine and Russia similar to the Marshall Plan after WW2. Putting both countries back into strong positions will enhance trade and ensure that both countries become more West looking than China facing. Jonathan
You have a number of very good, and worrying, points here, Sharkey.
In many ways we have the ingredients for a ‘perfect storm’, or indeed several ‘perfect storms’. Perceived weak US leadership; an impotent, corrupt and biased UN; the astronomic sums of money being spent on costly, unreliable and expensive to maintain so called renewable energy which includes subsidies for the wealthy against a climate change hoax initiated by Russia and China who, along with India, are taking no notice of it. A post Covid cost of living hike now exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and so the list goes on.
I would like to see the people of Ukraine awarded an honorary George Cross for their amazing resilience and resistance to the Russian onslaught which has captured the admiration and support of much of the free world.
Russia has shown gross irresponsibility and abuse in its threat to use nuclear deterrence to achieve unopposed (by countries other than Ukraine) entry into a sovereign nation to attempt to satisfy Putin’s expansionist aims. The Russian Federation should therefore be suspended from the UN Security Council and lose its veto. If he has not already done so, the Russian President of the Security Council should be replaced due to a massive conflict of interest.
Although much is being done to assist the Ukrainian forces by the UK and many other countries, as well as helping with their humanitarian/refugee crisis, it is agony to watch Ukraine being systematically and barbarically (the Pope’s word) turned into rubble, it can only be worse for the Ukrainians. I continue to pray.
Sharkey
The West must make it clear that we are collectively not against the people of Russia but only against the present leadership and corrupt oligarchs. When the war with Ukraine is resolved Russia will be in a dire economic situation and potentially beholden to China. Our reaction should be a wholescale financial package to support both Ukraine and Russia similar to the Marshall Plan after WW2. Putting both countries back into strong positions will enhance trade and ensure that both countries become more West looking than China facing.
Jonathan
You have a number of very good, and worrying, points here, Sharkey.
In many ways we have the ingredients for a ‘perfect storm’, or indeed several ‘perfect storms’. Perceived weak US leadership; an impotent, corrupt and biased UN; the astronomic sums of money being spent on costly, unreliable and expensive to maintain so called renewable energy which includes subsidies for the wealthy against a climate change hoax initiated by Russia and China who, along with India, are taking no notice of it. A post Covid cost of living hike now exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and so the list goes on.
I would like to see the people of Ukraine awarded an honorary George Cross for their amazing resilience and resistance to the Russian onslaught which has captured the admiration and support of much of the free world.
Russia has shown gross irresponsibility and abuse in its threat to use nuclear deterrence to achieve unopposed (by countries other than Ukraine) entry into a sovereign nation to attempt to satisfy Putin’s expansionist aims. The Russian Federation should therefore be suspended from the UN Security Council and lose its veto. If he has not already done so, the Russian President of the Security Council should be replaced due to a massive conflict of interest.
Although much is being done to assist the Ukrainian forces by the UK and many other countries, as well as helping with their humanitarian/refugee crisis, it is agony to watch Ukraine being systematically and barbarically (the Pope’s word) turned into rubble, it can only be worse for the Ukrainians. I continue to pray.
Well said, Martin!