The Leader of the Free World has had a very bad year, and with Ukraine it is only getting worse. Despite public warnings from Obama that “he shouldn’t run for President”, the Democratic electorate within the United States chose him and a feckless running mate. Hindsight and current events demonstrate that this was an appalling mistake and they, the United States electorate, only have themselves to blame.
Unfortunately for his Western Allies, POTUS’ policies and decisions directly affect the security, standing and trust of the Free World. They are therefore of strategic importance and when they demonstrate incompetence, illogicality and bad faith, they weaken the mutual security enjoyed by all democratic countries and strengthen the totalitarian despots who openly threaten our way of life.
But the election of a buffoon as our leader has not been the only problem in this extremely worrying year. His affinity for and affiliation with Green New Deal and Global Warming advocates has led us up the creek without a paddle. Presidential and Administration support for these ideologues would appear to be more important than National Security and the welfare of dependent citizens (e.g. those left behind in Afghanistan and now in Ukraine).
The free world’s leaders and media are now commenting that this crisis in Ukraine has been a much-needed wake-up call for many nations within the NATO alliance, especially Germany who has for too long ignored its responsibility to provide adequate military defences to deter aggression from the East. The Cold War stationing of tens of thousands of US and UK ground and air forces in Germany was viewed with little gratitude by that country. Instead, they were laughing all the way to the bank, creating immense economic power and basking in the sunshine of the NATO umbrella.
The kettle is now boiling and with it, an awakening in Europe. We all know the history of broken agreements between NATO and Russian countries but that is not what precipitated the current crisis. Four major elements have produced it:
President Biden’s illogical and now catastrophic decision to remove energy independence from the USA. The sudden lack of fossil fuel supply to the world market gave Russia a winning poker hand, as a result of which Putin has immense leverage against those that would oppose his policies.
In the same breath, Biden displayed incompetence and weakness with the precipitous Afghanistan withdrawal and left his own citizens and allies at the mercy of the Taliban and ISIS: a disgraceful betrayal that will never be forgotten. And now we have those left behind in Ukraine.
Perhaps the most remarkable trigger was when Biden closed the Kiev Embassy and removed all Embassy staff. Vacating this “sovereign” piece of US real estate must have appeared a green light to Putin who, otherwise, might well have reconsidered his invasion plans. Could not an attack on the Embassy and its staff have been considered an attack on the United States and resulted in the invocation of NATO article 5?
History will record that oppression and poverty in the Russian homeland persuaded Putin to launch his Ukraine initiative to bolster up his rapidly disappearing popularity. This is where his poker hand of leverage, so well played in the past, has failed him.
Putin would have done well to acknowledge history and learnt a lesson from the Falklands War, 40 years ago. Argentina’s leader, Galtieri, invaded the Falklands to take away attention from his tyrannical abuse of his people, including death squads. But he totally misjudged the situation. He had expected that the Falkland Islanders would welcome his troops with open arms and that Britain would have insufficient deployable airpower to defend any opposing task force. He was wrong on both counts despite the complete lack of land-based RAF fighter air defence support.
In 2002, Lord Bach supported by Sir Jock Stirrup persuaded the House of Commons Defence Committee that “the Falklands war experience is irrelevant in the modern world” (not verbatim). How wrong they were.
Whilst providing much-needed moral support for Ukraine and its people, the British Government should not in any way be diverted from its declared Strategic Maritime Policy. It is very much in NATO’s interest that the UK invests much more in a robust Naval Force that will demonstrate, along with our allies, a vital global Military and Political Power Projection Capability. Power disputes within landlocked Europe need to be resolved and deterred by the landlocked Nations themselves. The deployment of 2, or was it four, Typhoons to Romania in support of Ukraine is a ludicrous attempt to demonstrate effective military power. Why not send 2 squadrons of Typhoons? Or is that beyond the capacity of the UK Air Force despite having 160 of these fighter aircraft apparently on its books and available for our defence?
It is now incumbent on the UK government and in particular, the Treasury Department, to revise the continual denial of funds to our armed forces. By that I mean, when the Defence Budget provides money for a weapon system and that weapon system is delayed for political or other convenience, the allotted funding should be carried over to the new budget year – not reclaimed by the government. This is a practice that has been going on for far too long and disguises the real level of investment in defence – at considerable cost to our armed force capability and, in turn to our national security.
