- The key to this utterly regrettable war in Ukraine lies in the 2 maps displayed below.
- I wrote about this in my earlier Insight, “Ukraine – the last Frontier?”, paragraph 7:
“In 1990, according to the actual documents published by the US National Security Archive detailing what Gorbachev was promised, Secretary of State James Baker assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand “one inch” east of Germany. Thirty years ago, that was Russia’s red line.”
- The 2 maps above demonstrate how NATO, led by the USA, has reneged on that promise in a massive way. Words alone cannot do justice to describing the impact that NATO’s encroachment to the east has had on the Russian leadership.
- I do not in any way condone the invasion of Ukraine by Putin’s Army or the insane brutality of the Russian offensive. But, in the same breath, I do totally condemn the lack of recognition of this broken promise by NATO and European Union Leaders. I use the word “Leaders” advisedly because Statesmen they are not. Good leaders can acknowledge their own mistakes, including operational misjudgements. My Sea Harrier Squadron team in the Falklands often provided me with alternative plans for waging the air war – and listening to their advice was instrumental in ensuring our eventual victory.
- In Afghanistan, POTUS ignored the good advice of his intelligence and military experts. This led to an infamous disaster. In a similar vein, NATO leaders and diplomats are failing to recognize these broken promises and, apparently, are unable to understand the Russian leader’s point of view: which is a pincer movement of NATO countries advancing towards Mother Russia.
- Despite the immoral carnage now being inflicted upon Ukraine and its people, it may still not be too late to address this issue through serious and honest diplomacy. Such diplomacy must include “an unambiguous public initial Statement that NATO now understands the viewpoint of Russian leadership and wishes to forge a new and binding, peaceful way ahead for both parties. This way ahead is achievable subject only to an effective cessation of Warfighting in Ukraine”.
- If one doesn’t recognize and accommodate one’s adversary’s point of view, especially when that point of view is justified by historical events, then there can be no negotiated, diplomatic solution to the contested issue.
- Through admission of our own shortcomings we may yet evade unnecessary and unimaginable disaster.
- A way-out beckons. But do Biden, his dysfunctional Administration and other Western leaders have enough integrity to recognize their adversary’s point of view? That is the $64,000 question.
By no means do I agree with everything you write, but on this point you are spot on. I have worked in two professions that require total honesty; 9 years as a soldier and 13 years working offshore as a Directional Driller. In both, lives depended on admitting and correcting mistakes. The same attitude is required now, and the stakes are orders of magnitude greater.
Sharkey,
As always a measured and insightful analysis from you of how this disastrous scenario evolved. I agree. However we now have a dictator with no easy exit strategy and the capacity to make a fundamental error of judgement,
The theory of nuclear deterrents relies on both sides appreciating that the consequences of using them are simply too horrific and that is why they are deterrents. It does not cater for a psychopath on a revenge mission who has already lost credibility and has no exit strategy.
The West needs to ensure that for the short term Putin is not cornered and reduced to making the catastrophic error of nuclear aggression which his generals are all too likely to implement !
Remember in 1962 Kruschev was allowed to present to the Russian people that he had made the Americans remove their missiles from (I think ) Turkey.
I hope by this you are not giving Putin ammunition or justification for his actions! This line has been put forward by others, but the fact remains that Putin has invaded a sovereign state with no provocation or justification except that he is a very dangerous megalomanic and wants to flex his muscle without any concern for his people.
If I am correct, the promise given to Gorbachev in 1990 was before the breakup of the USSR. The countries that are now part of NATO are democratic, sovereign states but have, not surprisingly, become increasingly concerned during the reign of Putin that he might try and invade.
It would appear that the people of Russia don’t want this ‘war’, the Russian soldiers don’t want this war and his reason for the invasion has been blown away. Is this not history repeating itself when too much power is vested in one man for too long? Perhaps there is good reason for democratic countries to have a ‘term of office’.
There is, as far as I know, no desire for expansionism in NATO and the emphasis has been on co-existence. Putin has abused the nuclear deterrent by using it to say that he is going to invade another country, which is in contravention of all the ‘rules’, and if anyone tries to stop him then he will use his nuclear capability – outrageous. If Putin felt strongly about the 1990 promise he should have raised it when those other nations asked to join NATO – perhaps he did and I am unaware.
Putin has lied to his own people, he has lied to his armed forces, he has lied to the world. He has underestimated the people of Ukraine, the resistance to the invasion by the people of Russia and the strength of opposition of the vast majority of the world. The trouble is that whatever the final outcome is in Ukraine, and he may well flatten it, he has lost. And in realising that he has become an even more dangerous adversary like the cornered rat that apparently bit him in the face as a child.
No NATO country has shown any aggression towards Russia. Europe, and in particular Germany, has taken and is dependent on Russian gas and oil – I don’t even want to be reliant on France for our electricity. I consider it criminal that our government has not ensured we are self-sufficient in electricity and pathetic anti-frackers seem to have persuaded Boris that we should not do it when there are huge reserves of natural gas under our feet. The cost of living here is currently going through the roof.
Just some thoughts…..