Doctor Robin Kent’s comment on my Insight, “Mindless Sabre-Rattling Breeds Distrust”, is very astute.
His Kruschev reference, 1962, is all-important when it comes to defining a possible way out for Putin.
Remembering our Falklands campaign and the invasion of the Islands by Argentina, the world and its media dubbed the Task Force rescue mission as “impossible”. They were wrong – but it was a close-run thing. The confrontation was ignited by the British defence secretary, Sir John Nott persuading our Prime Minister, Maggie Thatcher, to put our new carrier HMS Invincible on sale, prospectively to New Zealand. It was a case of ignorance leading the blind and the South American dictator, Galtieri, took full advantage.
We appear to have a similar situation now with Putin invading Ukraine and the latter trying to defend its sovereignty against the powerful Russian Bear. This was Putin’s misguided attempt to initiate the rebirth of the Soviet State and to enhance his personal legacy. He took a chance, just like Galtieri, having observed the weakness of the United States Administration’s foreign policy and resolve and the resulting decaying unity of NATO and the European Union.
In searching for a palatable solution to this crisis, we should always remember that important phrase, “Never Give Up Trying”. Our Western politicians and governments need to apply that in the quest for a diplomatic solution.
Having thought more about the problem, I was probably mistaken to suggest a “Public” Statement when in search of the much-needed diplomatic initiative/negotiation. The initiative and the Statement need to be communicated in total secrecy at the highest level. The various “Hot Lines” need to be burning 24/7 without acrimony or malice and without the delivery of ultimatums – and especially without media involvement.
I remember being at Greenwich Staff College just after the Falklands war and a panel of top media journalists addressed us all. They claimed that the media and the public had “a right” to hear operationally sensitive, real-time intelligence about our Warfighting tactics and did not wish to acknowledge or understand that such a right had already been responsible for some tragic loss of life down South. I stood up and gave them “four barrels” concerning their egotistical position. But they were obdurate in their viewpoint. Political Correctness ruled the day, and I was asked to take my seat.
There is no room now for such Political Correctness. Whether we like it or not, we should address the bottom line, show that we understand the other’s point of view and disregard all the mayhem (however painful or distasteful that may be). It is a question of “losing the battle but winning the peace”. And is of paramount importance as a vital first step towards re-establishing stability on the Eastern front.
I am not saying that we should ignore the right of the Ukrainian people for self-determination. That is sacrosanct – almost! Why “almost”?
Our bone-headed Western Leader stubbornly failed to assure Putin that Ukraine would not be invited to join NATO – a horrendous mistake when considering that, behind the scenes, NATO leadership had already decided that Ukraine membership was not going to be offered. This lack of statesmanship gave Putin the excuse (albeit unjustified) that he needed to intervene with military force. It is not unreasonable to suggest that he, Putin, saw the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO as a threat to Mother Russia.
As the world holds its breath during this poker game, we must search for more strategic understanding and common sense. “Winner takes all” is not the game that either Western leaders, Russia or Ukraine should be playing. That could well end up in disaster. So there is no place for standing on dignity or for fear mongering by Western media.
So is there a sensible way ahead? Yes.
Cease the Warfighting and fully remove all invasion forces.
Allow the Dunbas region to be declared as an independent state with the right of full self-determination.
Preserve the balance of Ukraine territory as a new and independent sovereign entity.
Allow those who are resident in the Dunbas region and who wish to do so to migrate to the newly defined territory of Ukraine, with safe passage and security being assured by all parties.
It would be a hard pill to swallow for our friends in Ukraine but would prevent further horrific bloodshed and destruction and would give Putin an undeserved but necessary way out.
Over the past years it has been reported that now, today, the UK, would not be able to launch such a task force to retake the Falklands. Such has been the devastation of our military budgets and by a succession of Governments. It is probably fortunate for us Brits that Russia decided to attack the Ukraine and not Western Europe else we would have been really ‘caught short’ and have to again, borrow from the Americans. LOL. I can hardly wait for the MoD to declare the standard political ubiquitous phrase, “Lessons have been learned” and hear an announcement from Number 10 that our Armed forces are going to receive more money and every year. Why was it not considered in years gone by? Did “Globalisation” make the world a safer place? Government’s past concern for our defence is clear when I read that the annual charges against our National debt exceeded the MoD budget and by £Billions. There was no concern for the defence of this country. However, throwing money at a problem may not be the solution, for all Services are seriously under manned. Without the manpower, the war machines will be inoperable. The MoD, without doubt needs to attract more recruits rather than deterring them with the lawyers own Human Rights scam that rewards the enemy and punishes our soldiers, as is the case now. In Afghanistan and in NI in particular. Being punished for doing your job under orders, is not conducive to increasing the numbers of applicants and it never will be. But who allowed such a demoralising approach to our active service personnel? Aside from the ambitions of our political leaders, I believe the root cause is that the MoD is over staffed with unqualified persons. Accordingly, it should be manned by ex-Military personnel rather than ex-public school academics. One day – I wish! Why are Government departmental ‘geniuses’ so bereft of common sense?
You might wish to comment on the future status of Crimea.
Over the past years it has been reported that now, today, the UK, would not be able to launch such a task force to retake the Falklands. Such has been the devastation of our military budgets and by a succession of Governments.
It is probably fortunate for us Brits that Russia decided to attack the Ukraine and not Western Europe else we would have been really ‘caught short’ and have to again, borrow from the Americans.
LOL. I can hardly wait for the MoD to declare the standard political ubiquitous phrase, “Lessons have been learned” and hear an announcement from Number 10 that our Armed forces are going to receive more money and every year. Why was it not considered in years gone by? Did “Globalisation” make the world a safer place?
Government’s past concern for our defence is clear when I read that the annual charges against our National debt exceeded the MoD budget and by £Billions. There was no concern for the defence of this country.
However, throwing money at a problem may not be the solution, for all Services are seriously under manned.
Without the manpower, the war machines will be inoperable. The MoD, without doubt needs to attract more recruits rather than deterring them with the lawyers own Human Rights scam that rewards the enemy and punishes our soldiers, as is the case now. In Afghanistan and in NI in particular.
Being punished for doing your job under orders, is not conducive to increasing the numbers of applicants and it never will be. But who allowed such a demoralising approach to our active service personnel?
Aside from the ambitions of our political leaders, I believe the root cause is that the MoD is over staffed with unqualified persons. Accordingly, it should be manned by ex-Military personnel rather than ex-public school academics. One day – I wish!
Why are Government departmental ‘geniuses’ so bereft of common sense?